APC Showing Bullish Signals

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Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (APC) is a Texas based oil producer is up 31.2% YTD and isn’t looking back. The energy sector has lead the market this year and APC is no exception. After receiving a nice jump after a lawsuit settlement in April the stock has continued to climb. It has underperformed the industry in the past years and this new activity may be due to a catch-up in productivity. A trader went aggressively long APC buying the right to buy company stock at $115 at or before August expiration. It’s currently trading at $104.31 hitting its 52-week high.

The daily chart is forecasting a continued bullish trend over the next month. Day traders should also be confident looking at the shorter charts with APC breaking resistance above the cloud. Looking at the five-minute bar, APC is flirting with topside resistance in the cloud.

 

Now lets look at the trade:

Buying the APC Aug 115 Calls for $.77

Targets: Sell 25% at $.90, Sell 25% at $1.10, Sell 25% at $1.30, Sell 25% at $1.50

 

Greeks of this Trade:

Delta: Long

Gamma: Long

Theta: Short

Vega: Long

 

 

 

This article was written by Kyle Sheahan, an Associate at Keeneonthemarket.com.

e: Kyle@Keeneonthemarket.com

How Do They Know?

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Protective Life Corp (PL) has seen huge gains since Friday’s close, up more than $17.00 on the week. The stock jumped on the news that Japanese life insurance company Dai-Ichi Life Insurance would pay a pretty penny for the American financial services provider, around $5.7 billion. Dai-Ichi announced it would pay $70.00 a share for PL, a hefty premium of Fridays close.

The deal made traders long PL on Friday a fortune. For example, a trader bought 1000 PL June 60 Calls for 1.25 for a total cash outlay of $125,000. The next day, the same call options were worth $9.30, netting the trader $805,000, otherwise known as 650% returns overnight.

WFM Gettin’ a Bid!

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Whole Foods Market (WFM) is bouncing back after an abysmal May selloff prompted by a disappointing earnings report. The higher-end health food grocer admits it may have set its targets too high after posting huge numbers last year and peaking around $65. The May drawback, in which the stock traded almost inversely with broader bull market, featured the biggest losing day since the years leading up to the financial crisis when consumers had to curtail spending.

This is a cheap long for investors that believe in the business model as WFM is likely to see big gains. With the health craze ever expanding in the US and the recent, and perhaps disproportionate, selloff, Whole Foods stands to rally hard if it can hit its earnings projections, which it is hoping to do by implementing new cost cutting programs to streamline its supply chain.

The chart is looking great for WFM as it’s flying high above the cloud and projected to continue. The stock has found solid support levels and has broken resistance consistently today, up $1.71. Regardless, I don’t see the company, with its extremely passionate customer base, going anywhere.

 

 

The Trade: Buying the WFM July 42 Calls for $.33

Targets: Sell 25% at $.50, Sell 25% at $.65, Sell 25% at $.80, Sell 25% at $1.00

Greeks of this Trade:

Delta: Long

Gamma: Long

Theta: Short

Vega: Long

Quest Diagnostics On The Rise

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It might be time to get long Quest Diagnostics (DGX) as the healthcare company is breaking major resistance levels. The positive trends have been ongoing for a couple weeks and after hitting a low on May 23rd at $57 dollars, DGX rallied up to a high of $62.42 before selling off slightly to its current level of $61.40.

The long-term trend also suggests a continued rise in price as it has come close to its all time high, usually a positive signal for further gains. DGX is trading well above the cloud and is forecast to continue its rise. YTD the stock has outperformed the raging bull market, up 15.29%.

 

 

The Trade: Buying the DGX July 65 Calls for $.60

Risk: $160 per 1 lot

Targets: Sell 25% at $.75, Sell 25% at $.90, Sell 25% at $1.10, Sell 25% at $1.30,

Greeks of this Trade:

Delta: Long

Gamma: Long

Theta: Short

Vega: Long

Traders Go Long PL on UOA

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Protective Life Corporation (PL) is the holding company behind Protective Life Insurance as well as other familiar insurance and financial subsidiaries. Today a trader made bullish play on the company betting almost $125,000 in premium that the stock would close above $60 by June expiration. Buying a 1000-lot of these call options represents nearly twelve times usual option volume. The chart confirms a bullish trend as PL is currently trading just above the cloud and the positive trend looks to continue.

The financial services provider jumped more than 10% in Monday’s trading session seeing abnormally high volume. It’s currently trading at $58.52, and hit its 52-week high of $60.38 Monday. The unusual activity in the stock could stem from the fact that analysts haven’t been able to put their finger on a price target for the company, leading to much higher volatility and luring a lot of options traders into playing this stock, with most of the smart ones going long PL.

 

 

Apple ripe and juicy on implied volatility ahead of its tech announcement.

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Apple Inc. (AAPL) Silicon Valley tech giant that creates every “I” related tech product. The popular creator and distributor of computers, tablets, phones, and media has been boring the past two years without a new product launch. The tech company and its CEO Tim Cook, have been criticized for not continuing with the innovation and creativity found in the Steve Jobs era. Over the weekend Apple made the announcement that they had big news to announce Monday at WWDC. The hype and excitement around the potential for a new and innovative product has implied volatility juiced up.

Implied volatility surrounding announcements makes options pop in price value. We see implied volatility get inflated whenever bio tech companies report drug announcements, earnings announcements, and new product announcements. Implied volatility is inflated due to the uncertainty surrounding the news of the announcement. However after the news is announced implied volatility gets crushed as investors have processed the information and how it will affect the company and the stock price.

Awaiting Apple’s announcement, the stock is trading at $633.00 and was up about $1.27 pre-market. Apple has been trading in a fifty two week range between $388.87-644.17. Apple is trading above a very bullish cloud, with a slanted bullish future cloud. I believe Apple’s bullish chart is setting up for a long position. Remember getting in ahead of the announcement will mean that an options buyer will pay more in premium because of the pending announcement. After the announcement implied volatility will get crushed, lowering the value of the option.

 

Krispy Kreme Earnings Preview

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Krispy Kreme (KKD) is set to release earnings next Monday, June 2nd. After falling short of analyst expectation’s for Q4 2014 in March by a penny, the stock sold off about 67 cents. But when the company release fiscal 2015 guidance with high expectations it rallied again. KKD estimated EPS of $0.73-$0.79 on net income of $48 million–. It raised estimates based on its strong growth and ability to cut overhead costs increasing its profit margin.

For Q1 analyst consensus estimates are at $0.23 per share on $126 MM in revenue, expecting an EPS of $0.71 on the year. Krispy Kreme management ratifies its heightened estimates citing the harsh winter as a catalyst behind a weak Q4. The stock’s down almost 3% YTD trading at about the midpoint of its 52-week range of $13.55-$26.63.

Personally, I’m long Krispy Kreme because it’s delicious. But let’s take a look at the historical earnings movements and the trade setup.

Past eight quarters’ earnings reports:

 

03/13/14   $19.88   $20.11  $+0.23    (1.2%)
12/03/13   $24.55   $19.59  $-4.96     (-20.2%)
08/30/13   $23.23   $19.72  $-3.51     (-15.1%)
05/31/13   $14.26   $17.32  $+3.06    (21.5%)
03/15/13   $14.95   $14.54  $-0.41     (-2.7%)
11/20/12    $7.54    $9.31     $+1.77    (23.5%)
08/23/12    $6.95    $7.31     $+0.36    (5.2%)
05/21/12    $6.01    $6.62     $+0.61    (10.1%)

Historical Earnings Move: Mean 12.4%, Median 12.6%

 

The Trade: Buying the KKD June 20-21 Call Spread for $0.25 debit

Risk: $25 per 1 lot

Reward: $75 per 1 lot

Breakeven: $20.25

 

It is a sideways looking chart and looks to be able to move either way.

Short on Quicksilver Inc. earnings announcement (ZQK)

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Quicksilver (ZQK) surf and beach wear appeal maker and distributor, is setting up for a short on earnings for next week. (ZQK) is currently trading at $6.04 and has been trading in a fifty two week range between $4.81-9.29. The stock has underperformed the broad market plunging -31.24% year to date, down about -$2.74. Quicksilver’s historical earnings performance has been mixed with the stock rallying 4 times on earnings and selling off 4 times on earnings over the last 8 quarters. Quicksilver’s average move on earnings has been 11.7%, although we have seen moves as large as 31.7%. Technically the stock is trading very bearishly below a downward sloping bearish cloud. The stock is currently sitting in a stagnant range that matches where it was at 9, 26, and 52 weeks ago. Currently the June options market is implying the stock could move .88 cents. Unfortunately there aren’t any weekly ZQK options that could provide a cheaper way to play ZQK. I believe the cloud is showing a very bearish pattern that is setting up for a short into earnings.

With the implied move a trader can calculate his measure move targets:
Upside Target: 6.83
Downside: 5.17

Trade: June 6 Puts for .35
Risk: $35 per one lot
Max Reward: $5.65

PBF Looking Long Into the Future

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PBF Energy Inc (PBF) is a petroleum product supply and refining company headquartered in New Jersey. PBF just closed at $32.01 and has traded in a 52-week range of  $20.17-$32.41. Today, a trader bought 10,000 PBF Jan 2015 35-40 Bull Call Spreads for $1.80 debit. This is extremely bullish activity for the stock. Of the ten analysts covering PBF five have issued a “Hold” rating and four issued a “Buy” rating making the company a consensus “Hold”. PBF Energy beat earnings last quarter and is looking to improve for the rest of the year. Furthermore, it issued its quarterly dividend today, giving shareholders 30 cents per share.

 

My Trade: I bought the PBF Jan 2015 35 Calls for $2.00 debit

Risk: $200 per 1 lot

Targets: $2.20, $2.40, $2.60, $2.80, and $3.00

 

Greeks of this Trade:

Delta: Long

Gamma: Long

Theta: Short

Vega: Long

 

The Pantry Inc. up on new of an upgrade.

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The Pantry Inc. (PTRY) a convenience store operator, is up on news of an upgrade today. The stock was previously rated neutral by analyst. The Pantry Inc. (PTRY) is up about 3.5% on news of an upgrade to “outperform” today. The Pantry Inc. is currently trading at $16.70, and has been trading in a range between $10.99-17.62. Year to date Pantry Inc. has underperformed the market as shares have fallen 1.01% year to date. Options traders seem to have a bullish perspective on The Pantry Inc, today as we saw a trader buy 1147 December 20 Calls for .95 cents. Traders are continuing to jump on board with this trade as volume has continued to increase throughout the day. The original order showed volume of 1,501 and volume has increased to 2,815. Looking at The Pantry on the Ichimoku cloud, it is currently trading above cloud. With the bullish order flow and the stock trading above the cloud, I believe The Pantry is setting up for long.

Trade: Buying the December 2014 20 Calls for .95
Risk: $95 for one lot
Reward: Unlimited